Brian Johnson ([info]175560) wrote,
@ 2003-11-18 23:27:00
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Am I a societal leech?
As I've been settling into my new job over the last two months, I've been a little troubled by a certain viewpoint. What is it, exactly, that I produce for society? Granted, my work ensures that I receive my share of the world's economic "pie"... but does my job actually make the pie any *bigger*?

I guess I should elaborate a bit on what I do. I'm a stat arb trader. I write computer programs that automatically trade stocks, taking advantage of temporary market inefficiencies in order to earn profits. (I do not, however, do any late trading of mutual funds...) Bluntly put, the profits "come from" all the investors out there who are making mathematically noisy trades on the stock market, and they "go to" our fund's investors and our operating expenses. The work itself appeals to me because it's creative, mathematical, and challenging. But don't produce food, shelter, clothing, or any tangible good. I don't save anyone else any labor because of what I do. The world isn't cleaner, more productive, economically wealthier, more entertaining, or more educated because of my efforts. There are only two effects of my job that could reasonably be called "benefits": first, to shuffle money around between investors in the stock market, with my company and me skimming off the top of every dollar; second, to force the stock market to price stocks more efficiently (since we're taking advantage of inefficient prices, the effect of our trades is to push those prices closer to values that we think are "efficient", with success in increasing pricing efficiency == our profits). On a macro level, the first of these is clearly of no benefit to society as a whole. So, on the grand scheme of things, I cause stocks to be priced more efficiently. (Aside: don't reply to this by going into a tirade about the efficient markets hypothesis. Companies like mine exist and are profitable, therefore EMH *must be* wrong. Markets are quite efficient, but not perfectly so.)

To counter that, my company *consumes* quite a lot. We rent an entire floor of prime office space in Midtown Manhattan. We buy computer equipment like crazy. We hire people to do this task of dubious macroeconomic value, thereby increasing prices in the labor market for everyone else. We get a catered lunch every day. And we trade an astounding quantity of stock on a daily basis, thereby forcing the stock exchanges to buy better computers, hire more accountants, and so on. (Of course, we're the ones who ultimately pay for that, through the commissions that the exchange charges.)

So here's my unanswered question: is super-efficient pricing in financial markets of any net macroeconomic value compared with the still-rather-efficient pricing that would occur in the absence of hedge funds? If it does have some value, is it worth all the resources that my company -- and all the other hedge funds in the industry -- consume? An interesting thought experiment here is to imagine a world without any hedge funds or stat arb traders. All the profits that the stock market generates would still be there, it's just that they'd be distributed a little differently among investors (since we wouldn't be pushing money around). Moreover, there wouldn't be any hedge funds out there consuming society's resources to a dubious macroeconomic end. Yes, there would be some measure of unexploited profit opportunity in the form of less efficient pricing of financial instruments, but who cares? As long as nobody bothered to exploit it, it wouldn't matter, right? The money would still go to *someone*.

Is this another form of the tragedy of the commons? Am I a leech on society (figuratively, the guy who sits in the commons, watching every blade of grass grow, so he can try to predict when to pluck them just before they're eaten by cows or sheep or whatever; then sells the hay he's made for a profit)?

-Brian



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[info]pmb
2003-11-18 10:01 pm UTC (link)
It's unclear. Cetainly, you don't do much for society. But, as much as I hate to say it, if your company didn't do it, another one would. It's not like you are being unethical, you are simply arbitraging stocks over small inefficiencies. So your company is not evil, at least, and that's something.

Other than that, the main use for the stock market for non-investors such as myself is pretty minimal. I suppose it provides indicators about the relative stability of a company, but that's about it. And even Mr. Capitalism himself, Adam Smith, warned about the dangers of separating ownership, liability, and control of corporations into separate entities.

You certainly aren't a leech, though. You do cause money to move, and push money into the local economy. As long as the stock market isn't a zero-sum game, then it's okay. It's not at all clear to me that the money you make would end up in *anybodys* pockets if you weren't there to collect it, but I don't know as much as you do about these sorts of things. And I have trouble seeing the stock market as the commons - exploit it all you want, no skin off my back.

I just figured it out! As long as you pay enough (or more!) in taxes than you use common resources, you aren't hurting me. I am unsure whether corporate and personal taxes are high enough to make that claim. Give the difference to the Sierra Club or the Human Rights Campaign, and all will be forgiven :)

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well
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-19 01:35 pm UTC (link)
if your company didn't do it, another one would... So your company is not evil, at least

The problem with the first point is that it doesn't really bear on Brian's feeling that he personally is not producing things for socieity. A feeling which suggests that he desires to directly produce things. I agree with the second point, especially in light of some of Brian's past employers :). Its a good perspective.

You certainly aren't a leech, though. You do cause money to move, and push money into the local economy. As long as the stock market isn't a zero-sum game, then it's okay. It's not at all clear to me that the money you make would end up in *anybodys* pockets if you weren't there to collect it, but I don't know as much as you do about these sorts of things.

I think this is wrong. None of: (causing money to move, pushing money into the local economy, and the stock market being a non-zero sum game) mean that Brian is not a leech. Consider a thief who steals from profitable businesses in other states. The thief causes money to move (into his pockets), pushes money into the local economy, and takes it from profitable businesses (which are non-zero sum). He is still a leech. I think what you don't realize about his job is that arguably, that the money Brian makes would stay in the pockets of current stock market investors if Brian didn't exist. Its a transfer.

Its important to recognize that transfers of money do not create wealth. Because of this, resources expended to transfer money are a net societal loss (society has the same amount of money, minus the resources used to shift them). Brian is not investing in the stock market, his company's capital is not going to fund businesses to create wealth.

As long as you pay enough (or more!) in taxes than you use common resources, you aren't hurting me.

If Brian's job created value, then this would be true. But what if Brian's job consists of transferring value without creating it? (like the thief). Then he might pay as much in taxes as he uses in public resources, and still be hurting society because he uses private resources, and pays for them with the transferred value. In that case, society loses, on net, from his presence.

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Re: well
(Anonymous)
2003-11-20 06:22 pm UTC (link)
Its important to recognize that transfers of money do not create wealth.

His company is trading property. If I voluntarily trade you an apple for an orange then we have indeed produced value or wealth. We're both better off because we each now have something worth more to us than what we had before - else we would not have traded.

As long as the trades are voluntary then every party to every trade benefits from every trade. You can't say fairer than that.

jtk3@no-treason.com

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Re: well
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-20 07:24 pm UTC (link)
I totally agree with you that if two parties voluntarily trade with no side effects, they both benefit. My argument does not contradict this, for several reasons. One is that when you are rent-seeking, rather than producing, there are costs to invisible third parties. Another is that the value of the goods is unknown, so you can still "take advantage" of people making voluntary trades.

For one example of the rent-seeking issue, see my comment with the patent system.

Or suppose that one apple grows a day. When only I live at the bottom of the nearby hill, I can stroll up and pick it at my leisure. Now you shack up on some nearby grass. We both want the apple, and so every day we race for it. Our gain is still just a total of one apple a day, but now we are out the energy of running. Maybe we start sleeping on less comfortable ground closer to the tree so we have a head start. We could agree to just take turns, and that may work with two people, but as you get more and more people all competing to be the one to get the rent from this apple tree, it is more likely that there will be disputes, coalitions, and resources expended to get the apple. So the total income for society is less than with just one person.

This is a standard element of laissez-faire economics, it is usually referred to as "rent-seeking" behavior. The key here is that in normal interactions, the person who owns an apple and gets the benefit is the person who produced it. He planted the seeds and tended the farm, and there would be no apple without him. Here, the apple exists without anyone doing any work. The extra work in racing for it just transfers the apple from someone else to you.

An analogy for the resources Brian's company expends would be a member of our apple-chasing community who expends resources to obtain running shoes. His personal reward for doing this is being the first one to reach the apple. But someone else would have reached it, with less effort, if he hadn't done this. His efforts are expended in order to effect a transfer. There is an invisible party harmed by the trade between him and the running shoe salesman - the guy who would have reached the apple on his own. In the stock market, the invisible guy is the trader who would have noticed the inefficient price, just not as quickly as Brian's company.

(You can argue that the solution is property rights on the apple tree, but in the case of arbitrage, you can't clearly define property rights on "potential gains from market inefficiencies". You don't even know they are there until someone finds them.)

Yet another difference is that in voluntary trades, you assume that both parties know what the item is worth to them. The whole reason that Brian's company can beat the market is that they are better at valuing stock than other people. Other people think they are making profitable transactions when really they are making losing ones. What we have are not apples and oranges, but bags containing unknown numbers of apples and oranges. If I become good at weighing the bags, I may be able to make great profit trading them around before they are opened, but society has the same number of apples and oranges as before.

Many people on reading the above will quickly point out that knowing how many are in a bag is useful. Absolutely. There is a hidden, distributed benefit to arbitrage as well as hidden costs, I'm not sure which is higher. But most of the gains of the good trader are *transfers* from other people (he gets the bag with the most fruit instead of some random person). So if he has ways of expending resources to become a better trader, his incentive is to do so - even at a net societal loss.

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Re: well
(Anonymous)
2003-11-20 07:52 pm UTC (link)
Is it really impossable to figure out what the benefits of arbitrage are? Has anyone ever tried? If so it might be interesting if, for example, one could say that the conditions that lead to arbitrage being a useful societal investment are extreme or not.

--Ian Erickson

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Re: well
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-20 08:50 pm UTC (link)
The question we'd have to answer is: how much more efficient is an economy in which stock prices are accurate to within $0.10 and update within 5 minutes of news, versus one in which prices are accurate to within $0.01 and update within 30 seconds of news?

I have no clue how to answer this. There is probably some way of making some complicated model to get info, or some clever way of comparing empirical data from different stock markets over different periods of time, but...I really doubt it can be answered by a thought experiment, and I supect it would be tricky to get a good answer even for a professional economist with a research budget. But perhaps I'm being insufficiently clever.

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[info]175560
2003-11-18 10:17 pm UTC (link)
Peter,

You make several good points. The best a posteriori justification I have for what I do is exactly what you said: if I didn't do it, someone else would. Amusingly, however, there is a sense in which I *want* more people to try doing my job. Why? Because people who try doing this, and don't know what they're doing, create more noise in the stock market for me to profit from. :)

New York City has an astoundingly high personal income tax burden, when you combine together all the relevant factors. Chief among these is that the cost of living is so damn high here, that you have to be in one of the top tax brackets just to earn enough money to survive. My marginal tax rate is NOT pretty. It's without a doubt the most expensive place to live in the western hemisphere... I think San Francisco comes in second.

Anyone for locally indexing tax brackets to the cost of living? Yes? ... No...? *sigh*.

-Brian

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[info]stereotype441
2003-11-18 10:52 pm UTC (link)
Disclaimer: IANAE (I am not an economist).

This reminds me of a question I've asked myself a lot: What is the fundamental macroeconomic reason why people go hungry in a depression that's brought on by a stock market crash? The day after the crash, all the fields where the food is grown are still there, all the farmers still get up and plough them, all the trucks that drive the food to the store are still on the road, etc. etc. Nothing tangible changes. And yet more people go hungry after a stock market crash. Why doesn't the farmer just keep farming, and the truckers keep trucking, etc, so that people can stay fed? What gives?

Here's the best theory I've come up with (BTW, I don't know what EMH is so I'm sorry if this theory is related to EMH).

The distribution of goods and services from their sources to their destinations is an extremely difficult problem, and the free market is the best solution we've ever found to it. Part of what makes the problem so difficult is that buyers and sellers need to locate each other and negotiate, and that takes time and effort. But I think an even bigger reason the problem is difficult is that buying and selling always involves risk, and people need a reason to believe that the risk is worth taking.

Money in the bank, or mutual fund, or hedge fund, or wherever, often povides that reason. Maybe the trucking company and the supermarket are in the middle of negotiations and they can't quite make their terms meet. Someone executive looks at the company's balance sheet and says, "Well, it's a risk, but it might work, and if it fails we can liquidate investment X and keep ourselves afloat. So we'll do it". Result: the trade happens, the food get delivered, people don't starve. Maybe if the stock market had crashed, that same person would have said, "Well, it's a risk, and if we lose, we'll go bankrupt, so we won't do it". Result: the trade falls through, the food rots in the fields, people starve.

The argument of "why doesn't the farmer keep farming" etc. doesn't hold water because it implies that in the absence of free market forces, all the players could continue to operate at the same efficiency. That simply isn't true. Without the money, the buyers and sellers don't find each other as easily, or they can't cope with the risk as well. The system is just less efficient.

Back to your question, Brian, it sounds like your job is essentially a kind of arbitrage. I think anyone who engages in arbitrage is doing a tremendous economic service by moving stuff from places or forms where it appears less valuable to places or forms where it appears more valuable. You are part of the distribution system that brings buyers and sellers together. Sure, you're a few steps removed from putting food on tables, but your efforts improve the efficiency of stock trades, which in turn helps those executives to see the stocks on their balance sheets and have faith in their value, which in turn lets them make the risky business decisions that result in the goods and services going where they need to go.

All that and you get paid for it too. :-)

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[info]choiceful
2003-11-18 11:07 pm UTC (link)
To counter that, my company *consumes* quite a lot. We rent an entire floor of prime office space in Midtown Manhattan. We buy computer equipment like crazy. We hire people to do this task of dubious macroeconomic value, thereby increasing prices in the labor market for everyone else. We get a catered lunch every day. And we trade an astounding quantity of stock on a daily basis, thereby forcing the stock exchanges to buy better computers, hire more accountants, and so on. (Of course, we're the ones who ultimately pay for that, through the commissions that the exchange charges.)


Peter makes a good point about moving money around. By spending all of the above, you're patronizing the people who wish to create prime office space, who might not be able to afford to do so without companies such as your own, you're profiting those who like to design faster and better computers, you help employ people who deliver and organize food, help accountants make a living, etc. ;)

So long as you're spending, you're simply deciding whom you would like to see prosper as opposed to letting others in the economy decide, and when you're not spending, someone similar to yourself is making those decisions at your bank :)

As to being a social leech... that is a very tough one to tackle. I wrote a journal along a similar vein which Patri had some good comments on as well:
http://www.livejournal.com/users/smileycynic/73491.html?nc=3

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[info]patrissimo
2003-11-19 01:40 pm UTC (link)
By spending all of the above, you're patronizing the people who wish to create prime office space, who might not be able to afford to do so without companies such as your own, you're profiting those who like to design faster and better computers, you help employ people who deliver and organize food, help accountants make a living, etc. ;)

You are causing the office space to be used by you, rather than being used by a business that creates value, and pushing prices up for businesses that create value. You are causing more resources to be expended on computer design so that you can transfer wealth better, rather than being expended on technology for wealth creation. You eat food that would otherwise go to wealth creators, etc.

(this is assuming that Brian does not create wealth.)

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[info]choiceful
2003-11-20 11:36 pm UTC (link)
I was arguing that there is likely more redistribution than consumption, but although there is certainly some amount which is being redistributed rather than consumed, our further discussions have convinced me that the ratios are probably quite different than I'd originally been figuring. (I am aware of costs of redistribution, but I would think that those would be pretty low relatively speaking)

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[info]olstad
2003-11-19 09:13 am UTC (link)
So volunteer. Everyone has some differing need to feel like what they do contributes to the world. At least all of us self-actualized people. I would not feel comfortable unless my job was directly affecting people. Hence my career choice as either a teacher or a pharmacist. I know that I would not be happy as a researcher even if that research did help society as a whole, because it would be too many steps away. On the other hand, not everyone has the same need as I do. We all have it to differing degrees in order to be happy.

I would suggest doing some volunteer work, or as Peter suggests donating money. Although I really prefer the volunteer work, because then I am actually *doing* something. Donating money might give your job a purpose, though. i.e. I do this work so that I can help these organizations and I make a buttload of money so I can give more than others. (I suggest a children's outreach programs, but then I'm very children oriented. I feel like they are least able to help themselves if something goes wrong.)

I must admit, I have felt the same way in the last year. Right now I'm just going to school and who is that helping but myself? True, I plan to use this knowledge to help others, but still...

Many people also feel better when they have children. That's one reason people have kids, so they can make the world better in the future.

I'm glad that you are thinking about this. It makes you one of the elite. I bet looking around at your job many don't even worry if their work is contributing to society. It puts you at the top of Kirchoff's pyramid. :) Good luck!

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[info]goteam
2003-11-19 01:54 pm UTC (link)
I think it's really creepy to have kids to make the world a better place/so that your kids can make the world a better place even if you don't. It feels like such a cop-out, plus it's like "okay baby, I brought you into this imperfect world that I didn't do anything to improve for you and your generation, but that's okay because it's better just for having you in it and now you get to go out and make it better, okay? No pressure!" Sheesh. I know all parents have unrealistic expectations for their kids, but that just seems really unfair. Gah. Reading that over it sounds really godawfully pessimistic, but I can't find a better way of phrasing it.

I definitely agree about the volunteering thing though, or at the very least giving money to worthwhile causes. Lately I've been wondering if there's any way I can volunteer myself as a writer in particular, besides letters to the editor or whatnot. I should do more research on writing-oriented activism. If I could find a way to combine those two, that would be really cool.

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compromise
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-19 03:13 pm UTC (link)
It doesn't make sense to have kids be your *only* way of improving the world, just as you say. But to me it makes a lot of sense as part of a mixed strategy. You work to improve the world while you are there, and you have kids so that someone else will work to improve the world when you are gone. The short view and the long view. Just like spending some of your time on things that are fun now, and investing some of your time on things that will benefit you later.

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clarification
[info]olstad
2003-11-19 04:29 pm UTC (link)
I think you misunderstood me. Or perhaps I did not write what I meant. In a way having children and raising them is a way to improve the world. Not because the children are going to do anything special, but because it is better for a child to have the support and nurturing of a good parent. It's not that I want my children to do something special, they will probably be a lot like me after all, but I'm confident enough in myself to think that this world could use more people like me, no more, no less.

It is better perhaps to adopt children that wouldn't otherwise get good parenting, or care for children that have stupid parents (boy, have a met enough of those.), but many people find it easier to have and raise their own.

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(Anonymous)
2003-11-19 11:27 am UTC (link)
I'll make a roundabout comment that follows on what Paul said.

Each year, the MacArthur Foundation gives out a series of $500,000 "genius" grants to people from various fields who are nominated for "their potential to make exceptionally creative contributions to their respective fields" (quote from macfound.org). These physicists, short story writers, anthropologists, activists, composers and others get to take time off from their workaday jobs and spend the grant money on their research in any way of their choosing. No doubt, our society benefits from this. It may benefit in a way that is not totally apparent, but still, who knows what's been discovered during one of these grant sabbaticals? Who knows how many influential papers were written, or artworks created, or lives were enriched because of the extra lift that these fellows received from these grants?

Well, my point is this:

Where do you think the grant money comes from?

-Jeff M.

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Philanthropic Thieves Guild
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-19 03:12 pm UTC (link)
If the Thieves Guild pays for jugglers at the fair with some of their loot, does that transform them into a net benefit to the city?

[ Disclaimer: as I state in my longer comment, I don't think arbitrage is thievery (a pure transfer). But your comments seem to only bear on the issue of whether people who engage in pure transfer are leeches, not whether arbitrage is a pure transfer ]

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Re: Philanthropic Thieves Guild
(Anonymous)
2003-11-19 06:53 pm UTC (link)
No, that does not transform thieves into a net benefit. But we're not talking about thieves here. We're talking about legal risk-takers, not arbitrary transferrers.

The answer to my little rhetorical question is: the grant money comes from the profit the MacArthur Foundation makes by investing their endowment in instruments such as hedge funds, and the returns on hedge funds are in turn generated by people like Brian. If there were no Brians keeping prices efficient, there would be lower returns, and hence less grant money to spread around. -JM

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Re: Philanthropic Thieves Guild
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-19 07:37 pm UTC (link)
We're talking about legal risk-takers, not arbitrary transferrers.

While there is a moral difference, in terms of computing net economic benefit to society, a transfer is a zero, (and a costly transfer is a negative), legality makes no difference. What matters is whether the activity is a transfer or a production. I agree that the morality does matter for other types of analysis.

If there were no Brians keeping prices efficient, there would be lower returns

But if Brian is transferring and not producing, the MacArthur Foundation would have less money (as would any other hedge fund investors), but all the other stock market investors would have that much more money. Hedge fund returns would be lower, but returns for non-hedge investors would be higher. Perhaps there are charities just as worthy which don't invest in hedge funds, or investors would donate some of those extra profits to charity. Its hard to judge whether the money would be used in a better or worse way. But at least there would be more of it, because society would still have the resources that would have been used up by the hedge funds in pursuit of transfers.

This is why economic efficiency analysis (how big is the "pie") is so important. It cuts right to the heart of things by cancelling out these effects. There are all sorts of situations where its easy to point out that one party gains, but when you look at the whole picture, you realize that others lose even more and so the net is negative. (This is a common theme in analyzing the results of legislation and taxation.)

Its not the return from the hedge funds which is Brian's contribution to society. Its all the decisions made by investors and lenders about how to allocate capital which are based on more accurate information because he has made stock prices more effiicient.

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Re: Philanthropic Thieves Guild
(Anonymous)
2003-11-20 02:06 pm UTC (link)
Its not the return from the hedge funds which is Brian's contribution to society. Its all the decisions made by investors and lenders about how to allocate capital which are based on more accurate information because he has made stock prices more effiicient.

I think there's a little bit of a misunderstanding about the stock market here; generating positive returns and making stock prices more efficient are one and the same. One cannot do one without the other (and I suppose one could be viewed as a side effect of the other). It doesn't make sense to dismiss returns on the hand but praise efficiency on the other.

I think it's settled that Brian is not necessarily just a transferrer, but potentially a producer as well. (If this point is still up for grabs, I am mistaken.) And as such, if there's an inefficiency out there in the markets lying around, and Brian goes and corrects it and gives the return to the MacArthur Foundation (minus his cut), isn't that beneficial to society (assuming all charities use more money for good)? Because Brian is not simply transferring money from one investor to the other. The stock market is not a zero-sum game.

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Re: Philanthropic Thieves Guild
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-20 03:09 pm UTC (link)
I don't think this analysis is correct. I'll summarize my claim briefly as: if individual gains consist partly of transfers and partly of creation, than individual positive returns do not indicate a positive net impact on society.

The fact that the stock market is positive sum is irrelevant to whether Brian is increasing total social good. You can have a positive-sum game where adding a participant reduces the total sum of the end-result, there is nothing strange about that. That's why when I mentioned thievery in my post I specifically said the thief was stealing from profitable businesses. That's an example of how a new player in a positive-sum game can reduce the total benefit. The important thing is not the sum of the game, but how the new player affects the sum of the game. His transfers are a wash, the crucial issue is: does he produce extra value? Is it more than the resources he expends?

Generating positive returns *for an individual* and making stock prices more efficient are one and the same. But neither are a measure of the total social good. Generating positive returns, when some of your returns come from transfers, is not an indication that you are increasing total wealth for society. For example, if you are the first person to identify a market inefficiency, you receive the entire benefit. Yet all you have done for the market is made it faster by the *difference* between when you corrected the price and when the next guy would have. So your personal gain is much more than the market gain. If you spend resources doing this that are greater than the market gain, you can still receive a personal profit but be causing a loss for society (compared to the world without you).

Here is a simple concrete example: consider a world in which the first person to file a patent gets exclusive rights to produce the device forever. Alice likes to think about inventions in her spare time, and she'll eventually invent the widget in 2 years. The patent will be worth $100M over its lifetime. Bob realizes that he can invent it in a year for $80M. So he starts a crash program, buys lots of computers, hires some researchers, and makes it happen.

Now, these two are playing the positive-sum game of invention. Bob's actions result in profit for him as an individual. The total effect on society is to have the widget a year early, at a cost of $80M. It could be even worse - Carl might hear about this, and start an even-faster research program that works in 11 months and costs $95M. If Bob hears about this and stops, the result is the widget a month earlier for $15M. There is no reason to think society valued a month of widgetness at $15M (or a year at $80M). It was merely the result of individuals competing to be the first to realize a potential gain. The fact that it was a net win for Carl is a side-effect of the fact that the first person in gets the whole benefit, *not* an indication that he is creating net value for society.

You can look at Bob's affect on the world as transferring $100M from Alice to Bob, using up $80M of resources, and giving the world an extra year of using the widget. For whoever is first in, its worth it as long as the transfer is bigger than the cost. But for the world, its worth it only if the extra speed was worth the extra money. This is a totally different calculation.

The same is true of the stock market. It may be earning money for society as a whole, that does not mean that an individual participant who earns a profit is increasing societal wealth. He may be using up more resources to be the first one in than he gains by making the market a little faster.

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Re: Philanthropic Thieves Guild
(Anonymous)
2003-11-20 07:41 pm UTC (link)
Hi Patri, thanks for inviting me to the discussion. It looks like most of the comments I would want to make have already been made, (would one call this the Efficient Blog Hypothesis? ;p ) but I guess I do have some questions/comments regarding your patent example. It struck me funny and after thinking for a while I think I know why. First, when you are comparing Alice with Bob it seems as if you are comparing apples with oranges since Alice spends *nothing* to come up with a thought, while Bob is spending $80m to develop a *product*. I think that comparing Bob with Carl is much more reasonable, since in that case both of them have the idea and the alternatives are bringing it to market in one year at $80m vs. 11 months at $95m. If the question is whether that extra early month is worth 15m, I think there is a good possibility that it is, (I dunno if it would be over 50%, though) if for example the present value of the invention over its lifetime is $100m if Bob takes a year, but $115m if Carl can do it in 11 months. If we look at present values, earlier value is always worth more...
Anyway, if we take it to the extreme and compare bob doing it in 365 days @ 80m vs. carl doing it in 364 days @ 95 million, it seems to me that carl's company is much less efficient than bob's, and runs a good chance of running out of business if both bob's and carl's companies are developing a range of inventions and carl's always spends so much more...because he's not always going to be first to market. If you insist that this is the only invention that both of them will invest in, then it could very well be a loss, but it is also statistically not the most probable outcome. Also, if we compare total returns in your example, bob's is 25% while carl's is only 5.3%. If I were Carl, trying to decide what to do with my money, I might very well leave it to bob if I knew a way to get a higher total return, which would indicate to me that there's an upper bound on what carl will put into development to get $100m out.
To evade the question a bit, do you know anything about whether any of the possible bad outcomes here could be largely (if not completely) avoided by not granting eternal patents? ;) ...or possibly having a less coercive or more merchant court-based patent system? I guess mentally I have hangups about accepting that a free-market societal system could consistently produce such pie-shrinking effects.

And finally to give an on-topic parting shot, I would like to say that ALL types of investing are attempts to arbitrage. It's just more clear-cut in Brian's case. He thinks he knows the "correct" price of a stock better than other investors. If he is correct, he makes money and if not he loses it. We're talking here about situations where he is almost certainly correct, and the time frame is very short, so it would be my strong suspicion that the returns are low compared to longer-time frame and less certain investments. (And I would guess that only a small # of arbitragers would be sufficient to saturate a market.) But my investing is identical insofar as I believe I know the "correct" price of gold better than other investors. I make money if I am correct, and in the process "arbitrage" the gold price toward a better valuation. The two types of market activity differ in degree, but not in kind.

Whaddaya think?

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Re: Philanthropic Thieves Guild
(Anonymous)
2003-11-20 07:45 pm UTC (link)
Whoops, forgot to sign. Ok then, (trumpets sound) the above comment was written by mr. Ian Erickson, who wonders how he got sucked into a livejournal discussion. ;p

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Re: Philanthropic Thieves Guild
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-20 10:29 pm UTC (link)
Not all investing is arbitrage. If I take capital and start a company which produces value, I am not arbitraging. I am creating value directly, and if the company earns more than I put in, then I know I have created net value for society. Buying bonds also helps create value by lending money to profitable businesses. Arbitrage transfers while creating value, so its unclear when its a net win.

do you know anything about whether any of the possible bad outcomes here could be largely (if not completely) avoided by not granting eternal patents?

It could prevent bad outcomes specifically in the area of patents (though only at the cost of allowing other bad outcomes). But the heart of the rent-seeking issue has nothing to do with intellectual property laws, it occurs in many areas. It is simply what we expect to happen in a society of people trying to maximize their self-interest when they encounter resources which will provide benefit for whoever gets them first.

First, when you are comparing Alice with Bob it seems as if you are comparing apples with oranges since Alice spends *nothing* to come up with a thought

This is the underlying structure of incentives which causes rent-seeking. If you don't think its reasonable in the area of patents, its easy enough to find some other example. A nicely shaped rock lying on the ground near a village. Someone will pick it up in a week or two as they happen by this ground, because the villagers forage. Or, someone can spend a lot of time searching for it and find it in a day or two. Their gain is the use of the rock forever. Society's gain is only the use of the rock for an extra week or two.

The search for individual gain does not always lead to a bigger pie. Its just the most consistent, effective method we've found :).

Anyway, if we take it to the extreme and compare bob doing it in 365 days @ 80m vs. carl doing it in 364 days @ 95 million, it seems to me that carl's company is much less efficient than bob's, and runs a good chance of running out of business if both bob's and carl's companies are developing a range of inventions and carl's always spends so much more.

Why? If Carl always spends more, but files the patent first, then he always makes more than he spends. Bob never makes anything! His potential return may be 25%, but his actual return is 0%. All the rewards go to whoever gets there first. It may cost more to get there first, but if you don't spend that extra money, someone else will. (until you reach the point where you make less than the current interest rate on your investment).

Having there be large time or money differences between Bob & Carl is, as you point out, not realistic. I also think it clouds the issue by making the increased benefit due to having the invention sooner significant. Try looking at it this way: Bob announces a plan that will cost $80M and take 365 days. Carl comes up with a plan that will cost $81M and take 364.99 days. Bob realizes that by spending $83M, he can patent in 364.98 days. Carl can spend $86M and patent in 364.97 days. The cost keeps going up until one person is earning the market rate of return on their investment and the other is unwilling to spend more. The increased societal benefit for these tiny changes is miniscule, but Carl and Bob are willing to use lots of resources seeking them because it results in a big change in their personal benefit.

In essence, you are bringing the return on this research down to the prevailing interest rate by wasting resources.

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Re: Philanthropic Thieves Guild
[info]cubetime
2003-11-21 12:41 am UTC (link)
Why? If Carl always spends more, but files the patent first, then he always makes more than he spends. Bob never makes anything! His potential return may be 25%, but his actual return is 0%. All the rewards go to whoever gets there first. It may cost more to get there first, but if you don't spend that extra money, someone else will. (until you reach the point where you make less than the current interest rate on your investment).

This makes your example start to sound an awful lot like a dollar auction.

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Re: Philanthropic Thieves Guild
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-21 12:48 am UTC (link)
Exactly! You understand :).

Except imagine a dollar auction where instead of bidding for the dollar with money for the auctioneer, people bid to destroy resources. ie "I'll throw a book in the river for that dollar". "I'll throw two books in the river for that dollar", and so forth.

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Re: Philanthropic Thieves Guild
[info]cubetime
2003-11-21 01:03 am UTC (link)
So initially I was thinking that there is a significant difference when the resources are being spent on developing and preparing a physical widget for market, as opposed to trying to divine some piece of information.

Along those lines, I was thinking that the people racing to divine information are worse off for failing to be first to market than the people who are developing a physical widget. At least the widget people have something to show for it in the end that they couldn't just as easily have copied from the people who produced it. (I.e., they'd have a fabrication plant, prototype widgets, etc.) The info people would just be able to say, "we spent a bunch of time trying to figure out what they did just before we did."

However, then I considered that the bulk of the expense in the physical widget space is often divining how to make the widget (and make it profitable). That made me think that both the physical and informational camps are about on equal footing when they lose.

Most recently, it occurs to me that the closer someone is to pure information production, they less they are hurt by not being first to market. I think that they are in a much better position to re-target than the physical widget folks. Additionally, there is higher likelihood that the techniques they developed or refined are much more readily tunable to other profitable applications.

Does this make sense, or am I mistaken?

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Re: Philanthropic Thieves Guild
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-21 11:12 am UTC (link)
It makes some sense. I think of it as the difference between production and discovery. If you produce something, it wouldn't have existed without your efforts, so its OK that you get its whole value. But if you discover something, someone else might have discovered it without you. They might even be partway there, but you get the whole thing.

Looked at this way, it seems like physical items consist more of production and information items consist more of discovery. If I build some widgets, or I build an efficient widget-making machine, then even if you build the same widgets or machine, I still have my widgets (or ability to make them). Maybe I can't sell them for as much because of the competition, but they are still worth something. But if I get halfway to designing a new widget-making machine to sell to all the widget makers, and you finish the design, patent it, and license it to them, now I got nothing.

Half an apple is still a decent breakfast even if someone gets the other half. Halfway to pick the apple when someone else gets there and grabs its is nothing.

But as you point out, the two areas are tangled, ie finding a good way to produce a physical item is an informational task. And as you say, informational tasks are more fluid, more easy to re-direct, than physical ones. So I really dunno.

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transfer = leech?
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-19 03:07 pm UTC (link)
As Stacey says, just thinking about these issues is a good sign. Some people need to help people directly, other indirectly, others not at all. Know thyself and plan thy life accordingly. But don't forget that making lots of money while you are young gives you more freedom to make such choices later.

I think there are two separate issues here. 1) Does arbitrage create value, or just transfer it? 2) Are people who live on transfers leeches?

I'll start with 2. I think that to some degree, people who live on transfers instead of creation are leeches. That's one reason I don't play more poker, and why poker didn't give me satisfaction. The people who lose money would be just as happy if I didn't play. Probably happier. Its a non-productive job, and that makes it a bit hollow for me. As a *recreation*, its great, I have no qualms about it, but its no substitute for creation.

It may be true that if you didn't transfer, someone else would. But there is still a personal connection between you and your work. Emotionally, it matters whether you are the guy transferring or creating. And I haven't seen any convincing arguments here that transferrers are not leeches.

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Advertising
[info]zudini
2003-11-21 03:32 pm UTC (link)
Here's a question that's been on my mind for a while, and since it seems at least slightly related to this topic I'll throw it in.

Are advertisers leeches?

Consider the following concrete example. Alice and Bob are each producing widgets. The widgets are functionally identical; both Alice and Bob make them for $1 each and sell them for $5 each. The annual market for widgets is 100 units, and it is split evenly between Alice and Bob. I enter the scene and claim that I can move 10 of Alice's annual customer base to Bob through branding and advertising. Since Bob stands to gain $40 from this he has no qualms about paying me $20 to do so. I consume $10 of resources to make the commercials, and pocket the remaining $10.

Am I a leech? Is there any value at all that I am creating for the society? How accurately, if at all, does this example model the real world?

The following thought makes me think that I am probably a total leech in this example: Alice would pay me $21 to nothing and forget about Bob. My profit would be bigger since I'd consume no resources. Is it generally true that if some party is willing to pay you to not do what you're doing, then you are a societal leech?

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Re: Advertising
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-21 06:25 pm UTC (link)
I often argue that advertising is a societal loss (and thus advertisers are leeches). There is some value (hearing about new products), but most of the income comes from transfers (buying your product instead of someone elses when they are identical). So their income does not measure their societal benefit. They are getting paid to transfer.

One thing I've noticed about advertising is that the less difference between products, less room for improvement, and higher market saturation there is, the more advertising you get. Which makes sense, that's when it becomes the best use of a company's money (rather than R&D, Sales, etc). Hence soda, tennis shoes, pop music.

If there isn't market saturation, your example does not reflect the real world because some of Bob's new customers may not be Alice's old customers. If there are enough new customers, that could balance out the cost. But a factor making things worse than your example is that Alice will hire an advertiser also. If this doesn't expand the market, now society is spending twice as much and still getting nothing. It turns into a wasteful arms race. Its yet another case of the general problem of situations where you can expend some resources in order to transfer others.

I don't think your thought is quite right. Suppose Carl (that's you, the advertiser) tells Bob that for $10, he can do something that costs Alice $20 and gains Bob $35. Carl will use up $5 in resources doing it. This is a societal gain of $10 (Bob nets +25, Alice -20, Carl +5). It is still true that Alice would pay Carl not to do anything ($10), and Carl would take it, yet Carl is not a leech.

(Or a more drastic example for the non-numerically inclined: DeBeers might pay you not to create a formula for turning pencil lead into diamonds, but that doesn't mean such a formula is a loss for society.)

The reason is that there are costs/benefits to 3rd parties involved. Carl and Alice having a side payment that makes them happier if Carl doesn't act is insufficient to tell us what the net result is if Bob didn't get to chime in. It could still go either way.

To see what the result is for everyone's interests, we have to let everyone negotiate. In your scenario, the best rational agreement the three can come to involves Carl not acting. That is what indicates a societal leech. Whereas in my scenario, the three of them together will always rationally agree to have Carl act. (We can always make side payments to make Carl acting a Pareto-improvement)

Note that in your scenario, rather than Alice paying Carl to do nothing, Alice could pay Bob $31 to turn down Carl's offer. Carl can't make Bob a better offer. This is related to Carl's leechness, but it depends on the exact game payoff matrix. So I think this is a roundabout method of reasoning, and its better just to add up the total gain minus resources expended, compare when Carl acts vs. when he does nothing, and that's your answer. In your example, Carl causes a net loss of $10, therefore he is a leech. In my example, Carl causes a net gain of $10, therefore he is not a leech.

I find it interesting that Alice knowing about Carl's proposal in advance and being able to make a counteroffer is key to whether the economically efficient decision gets made. I wonder whether an economy would benefit from rules (or traditions or generally accepted practices) that involve publicizing preliminary contracts or plans of action and giving third parties a chance to join in?

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does arbitrage create value?
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-19 03:08 pm UTC (link)
On the other question: I really don't think your job is a pure transfer. I think you do create value. You create value by pricing stocks better. A company's stock price gets used in all sorts of financial decisions. Its optimal strategy to generate maximum wealth depends on its own value.

imagine a world without any hedge funds or stat arb traders. All the profits that the stock market generates would still be there, it's just that they'd be distributed a little differently among investors...As long as nobody bothered to exploit it, it wouldn't matter, right? The money would still go to *someone*.


This is not true. You are assuming that financial decisions get made just as well, and companies can create just as much profit, with less accurate knowledge of their own value. To see why this is false, imagine a world without any brain cells among investors. Investors buy and sell randomly. Capital gets drastically misallocated and net wealth (the total pie) is much lower. So it does matter.

In between random and perfect stock prices there is a spectrum. There are surely diminishing returns for more accurate stock pricing, but the above should demonstrate that it is a positive.

Whether it is a *net* positive, ie worth the resources put into it, is another question entirely (and to me, a very interesting and difficult one). In a normal job, you get paid by the people you create value for. So you know your work is a net win, because the people who receive the benefit still see it as a benefit after your wage. There is a direct connection between cost and benefit. (Although perhaps I shouldn't say "normal", since it is not true if taxes pay your wages, which is the case for a large portion of the country).

Your job involves both value creation and value transfer. But oddly enough, your wages are paid by those you transfer from, and you create benefit for a different set of people! (anyone who uses the stock price). So there is a disconnect between the cost and benefit of what you do. No wonder you feel unsure of your value! It seems to me that your work could theoretically be a big net win, a medium net loss, or anywhere in between, and difficult to tell which.

The only thoughts I have are: As a lower bound, you're at worst a net loss of the resources you use up. As an upper bound, consider the fact that you are in the transfer business rather than the selling-information business. (Though this could just indicate that the users of the information are spread out, so there are high transaction costs to sell to them, rather than that the total value to users is lower than the value of transfers).

If the benefit of the information you create is concentrated (say lenders making occasional big decisions), then it seems to me that being in the transfer business indicates that transfers are greater than creation. But if the benefit is dispersed, it indicates nothing about relative values.

There is a strong parallel to government here. You are taxing one set of people (bad investors) to create value for another set (anyone who uses stock prices). If the value you create is concentrated, then the fact that the public sector is providing it makes one suspicious of whether its a net win, and very suspicious of whether its being done the most efficient way. But if the value you create is widely dispersed and would be difficult to charge for, then public production could be a net social win.

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Re: does arbitrage create value?
[info]zudini
2003-11-20 02:05 pm UTC (link)
In a normal job, you get paid by the people you create value for. So you know your work is a net win, because the people who receive the benefit still see it as a benefit after your wage.

Not always; it is still possible to be a leech in a "normal" job if your employer is mistaken in that belief. One could argue that in a true equilibrium, such stupid employers have gone broke and this situation does not occur. However, in our economy, I believe it certainly does occur. In fact I think a great many "normal" jobs are actually net-negative.

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Re: does arbitrage create value?
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-20 05:28 pm UTC (link)
You are correct, its a spectrum. The tighter the market feedback (and the less your gain comes from involuntary transfers), the more likely you are to be a net positive.

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And now for the shortest reply here...
[info]bagoffarts
2003-11-19 09:28 pm UTC (link)
You _are_ producing something that an entity has a desire for. Your company may be a leech on society, and you may be providing easier access for them to be so, but I don't think this makes you a leech per se.

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[info]radium
2003-11-20 05:01 pm UTC (link)
If you create sufficiently generalizable algorithms, there's a LOT of potential for making the pie bigger.

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[info]cubetime
2003-11-21 12:38 am UTC (link)
I'm way out of my league here I think, but I'm going to comment anyway.

If your company were the only company expending resources to correct pricing inefficiencies, then I would think it would be possible to create a net benefit for society as a whole. The reasoning I see for this is that a centralized operation working at a large scale can do more for less than many individuals working independently can do. In other words, it could be the case that the transference of value costs less when you try to do it than when many others try to do it.

However, when many companies are competing to profit from arbitrage, it will almost certainly make most of the work redundant. This seems to make the pie smaller.

So, if you can do it so well for so low a cost that you force everyone else out of the arbitrage business, is that a benefit to society?

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Support from the professionals
[info]patrissimo
2003-11-21 12:01 pm UTC (link)
From _Law's Order_, by David Friedman:

But while successful speculation is both productive and profitable, its productivity is not measured by how profitable it is. If Organ buys one day and sells the next, taking advantage of his early knowledge of the treaty, and if it happens that no decisions relevant to producing or using tobacco are made in that interval, he still makes money from the transaction. Thus speculation is an odd case of an economic activity that produces a private benefit that is matched by an external cost--the loss to the party that would have been holding the commodity when its price went up if the speculator had not bought it--along with an external benefit. The net effect is to provide speculators an incentive to produce valuable information and make that information public through the effect of their market transactions on prices, but that incentive is unrelated to just how valuable the information really is.

Also in _Hidden Order_, he points out that while successful speculation is both profitable and socially valuable, the profit isn't a measure of the social gain, hence someone might spend more aquiring the information than the information is worth.

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[info]nuclear_eggset
2003-11-28 06:49 pm UTC (link)
I don't know an awful lot about the details of econ either, though it was my concentration. But the fact that this entry caused 38 comments, including at least two major discussions, seems to me to point to the fact that you - in and of yourself - are not a leech on society. Something to consider about your job is that, by shuffling wealth around, your company is producing more consumers - all their paid employees - who can use their wealth in the pursuit of worthy causes. There's a lot to be said for that too, though it does put more personal responsibility to do worthwhile things directly on the employees shoulders.

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Leeching
[info]the_gecko
2003-12-02 01:11 pm UTC (link)
This thread has generated the most Patri comments I've ever seen in one place :)

FWIW, I think the issue of social leeching is basically a chimera. One might say any kind of dependence on something we didn't earn makes us leeches, if you want to take that view. You leech every time you breathe the air or benefit from the sun's warmth. The magnetosphere protects you from cosmic radiation and gravity holds you in the environment you were evolved to live in. I'd say the value of any one of these things vastly exceeds the total per-capita value that humans have produced since we first appeared as a species. In other words, every single person can be seen as a massive leech from the very beginning. We all owe a debt to the universe that we can't repay.

By comparison, leeching or not leeching from society seems pretty small beer to me...

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